Alabama’s NCAA Tournament Resume at a Glance — January 19
After a great start to conference play, Alabama dropped two games last week to move its record to 12-5 on the year.
The week began with a road loss against South Carolina. The Tide fell just short in a comeback attempt after missing a last-second 3-pointer. Alabama then returned home to host the nation's top-ranked team, Kentucky, and couldn't keep up with the talent of Calipari's team.
But there is some good news. Some of Alabama's past opponents had a good week, which in turn gives the Tide's resume a boost. Most important was Texas A&M, which rose to RPI 39 after a win at LSU.
Surprisingly, the Crimson Tide actually improved its tournament status according to one bracket expert. Let's take a look at how things are shaping up with six regular season weeks remaining.
The Core Numbers
Alabama Record: 12-5 (one win vs non-D1)
- No losses outside of the top 50
- 1 win vs top 50 (Texas A&M)
- 2 wins vs RPI 51-100 (UCLA, Tennessee)
- 1 win vs RPI 101-150 (Arizona State)
Current Projections
ESPN Bracketology by Joe Lunardi - Four SEC teams are in according to Lunardi, but Alabama isn't one of those. This tweet during the South Carolina game five days ago explains why he doesn't even have Alabama among the first 8 teams out.
CBSSports.com Projections by Jerry Palm - From first team out to last team in, Alabama is currently projected to face Temple in a play-in game as a 12-seed. The wins over Tennessee and Texas A&M look even better as both teams are among the first four out of the tournament.
Current Rankings
KenPom - #44 (Last week - #39)
ESPN RPI - #48 (Last week - #29)
Jerry Palm RPI - #53 (Last week - #33)
Sagarin - #52 (Last week - #49)
This Week's Opponents
Away vs Arkansas (Thursday, Jan. 22 @ 6PM, ESPN2)
Arkansas (RPI 29) will be a clear favorite when Alabama travels to one of the more difficult road venues in the SEC. Ole Miss just handed Arkansas its only home loss last time out so that should give Anthony Grant's team a little confidence. The Hogs are one of two conference teams that are solidly in the NCAA Tournament at this time so it's a big opportunity for Alabama to strengthen its resume.
Home vs Auburn (Saturday, Jan. 24 @ 7:30PM, SEC Network)
A sellout crowd is expected for the first of two in-state matchups this year. This game is hugely important for Alabama because it can't afford any upset losses. Auburn (RPI 103) might be considered an easier opponent by most fans but Bruce Pearl has his squad improving. Keep in mind that the Tigers have beaten two teams that Alabama lost to (Xavier, South Carolina). A loss in this game and there won't be any need to continue this weekly breakdown.
How Key Non-Conference Opponents are Faring
Wichita State (RPI 11) - The Shockers cruised again by an average score of 16 points. This week will be two more victories against lower RPI teams so the Shockers might see their ranking drop a couple spots as a result.
Iowa State (RPI 16) - The Cyclones dropped a one-point game at Baylor before rebounding with a huge win at home against Kansas. Iowa State gets Kansas State (RPI 82) this week before traveling to conference-worst Texas Tech. Expect two more wins.
Xavier (RPI 31) - Despite a loss, Xavier moved up a handful of spots in the RPI rankings. The Musketeers can really improve their chances of making the tourney with a road win against Providence (RPI 22) on Thursday.
UCLA (RPI 63) - After dropping five straight games, the Bruins have won three straight and are solidly inside the top 100. Two road wins this week at Oregon State and Oregon could have the Bruins in the top 50 by the end of January.
Arizona State (RPI 138) - The Sun Devils got blown out by a very good Utah team but responded with the second top 100 win of the season against Colorado. This likely won't ever become a great win for Alabama but having Arizona State inside the top 150 would be ideal.
*Only top 150 teams will be included in this section.
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