FiveThirtyEight Releases College Football Prediction Model
FiveThirtyEight, the news and political analysis website known for its election year models, has released its annual college football prediction board.
Atop FiveThirtyEight's list of playoff contenders is Alabama, with a 59% chance to reach the four-team postseason tournament at the moment. Behind Alabama are Ohio State (52%), Georgia (49%) and Clemson (44%).
The Crimson Tide have the best chance to claim the national title (26%), while the Buckeyes (18%), Bulldogs (16%) and Tigers (9%) follow soon thereafter in the pecking order.
What does all of this mean? A whole lot of nothing if you were to ask coach Nick Saban or Georgia's coach Kirby Smart.
However, it can be fun as fans to analyze prediction models during a slow work week and come up with scenarios for the upcoming playoff.
If history is any indication, there is a very good chance the College Football Playoff field boils down to some combination of Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Clemson.
However, we have yet to play a season where these four teams all make the playoff at the same time.
With Oklahoma, Notre Dame and other playoff sleeper teams faltering before Halloween this season, there are only a few key threats to the pairing of the 'big 4'.
Teams like Michigan, Penn State, Tennessee, Oklahoma State and USC have the opportunity to play spoiler, with many others capable of shuffling the field as well.
In the end though, the title game in Los Angeles is likely to feature at least one and likely two of the big 4.
What does the entire FiveThirtyEight model have to say about all these possible upsets?