What to Expect in Alabama's First Round Matchup

Nate Oats and the Crimson Tide have punched their ticket to the big dance in March, with the Tide securing a 2-seed in the East bracket of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. The Crimson Tide will face the 15th seed Robert Morris Colonials on Friday, March 21, at 11:40 a.m. CDT at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, Ohio.

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This will be Oats' fifth consecutive trip to the big dance, with Alabama falling short of a National Championship last season when they lost to UConn in the Tide's first Final Four visit. Much like last year, the Tide have the team to go the distance, with Oats returning half of his final four team. This squad finished 25-8 in the regular season and 13-5 in SEC play, with the Tide losing in the Semifinals to the Florida Gators, who went on to win the SEC Tournament Championship.

Alabama's first-round opponent is a strong Colonials team that qualified for their first Tournament since 2015 by winning the Horizon conference regular season and Tournament championships, finishing the 2025 season 26-8 and 15-5 in conference play. The Colonials are led by head coach Andrew Toole, who has been with the team for the past 18 seasons after taking the post in May 2010.

Let's take a look at the two teams and see what Alabama should be looking out for and what the Colonials should be mindful of in their upcoming showdown in Cleveland on Thursday.

Offense By the Numbers

Alabama has one of the most explosive offenses in the country, with the Tide's Adjusted Efficiencies at 127.6, which is the fourth highest rating in the country according to Bart Torvik, trailing only Auburn, Florida, and Duke. This is a significant increase from Robert Morris' offensive, which has an Adjusted Efficiencies of 105.9 and ranks 185th in the nation according to the Bart Torvik rankings. These Adjusted Efficiencies were calculated by measuring offensive and defensive efficiency, or points scored and points allowed per possession, while accounting for the quality of competition and the environments in which the teams played in.

Alabama's field goal percentage is among the highest in the country, with the Tide shooting 56.3% from the floor this season, ranking 15th in the nation. Robert Morris, on the other hand, shot 51.3% from the floor this season, ranking 142nd in the nation according to Bart Torvik Rankings.

Both of these teams are consistent from three, with the Crimson Tide averaging 35.0% from beyond the arc on the season, which ranks 116, compared to the Colonials who averaged 34.9% from three, which ranks them one spot behind Alabama at 117, according to Bart Torvik. Despite the similar shooting percentages, the Tide shoots way more three-pointers than Robert Morris, with a three-point rate of 46.2, which ranks 42nd in the country, compared to the Colonials 36.8, which ranks 235th.

Robert Morris dominated their conference tournament, winning every game except for the semi-finals by double digits. The team excelled on the offensive end, averaging an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 113 over their last five games. In each of these games, Robert Morris scored over 70 points and shot above their season average from three-point range, hitting 41% of their attempts. Additionally, they averaged 10 made three-pointers per game during this stretch.

Alabama, on the other hand, has faced a tough stretch in their last five games, going 2-3 during this period. Three of their losses came against two No. 1 seeds and one No. 2 seed. However, the Crimson Tide has maintained the strongest strength of schedule according to KenPom. Despite their record, Alabama's offensive adjusted efficiency has averaged 126, which is slightly below their season average of 127.6. In these five games, the Tide has also shot a bit below their season average from three-point range, hitting 34% of their attempts from beyond the arc

Robert Morris is a highly skilled rebounding team, particularly when it comes to offensive rebounds. The Colonials have an offensive rebound rate of 35.3, ranking 31st in the nation according to the Bart Torvik rankings. In comparison, the Crimson Tide rank 39th in the country with an offensive rebound rate of 34.7. This disparity could pose a problem for Alabama, especially since their leading rebounder, Grant Nelson, is currently dealing with a knee injury he sustained during Alabama's semifinal loss to Florida in the SEC Tournament last Saturday. Head Coach Nate Oats is optimistic about Nelson's chances of playing in the first-round matchup, stating that Nelson will see a specialist on Monday to assess the injury and determine how long he may be sidelined. Even if Nelson returns, his injury could significantly affect the Tide's rebounding efforts, particularly on the offensive glass.

Alabama Scoring Leaders

Mark Sears (18.7 PPG)
Grant Nelson (11.8 PPG)
Aden Holloway (11.4 PPG)
Labaron Philon (10.9 PPG)
Chris YoungBlood (10.0 PPG)

Robert Morris Scoring Leaders

Kam Woods (15.1 PPG)
Alvaro Folgueiras (14.1 PPG)
Amarion Dickerson (12.9 PPG)
Josh Omojafo (11.4 PPG)

Defense by the Numbers

Alabama's defense has been inconsistent this past season, primarily due to the high level of offensive competition they face regularly. Despite these inconsistencies, Alabama is still ranked among the top 30 defenses in the nation. The Tide has a Defense Adjusted Efficiency of 96.4, placing them 28th on the Bart Torvik rankings. This is particularly impressive given the strength of schedule Alabama has encountered. In contrast, Robert Morris has a Defensive Adjusted Efficiency of 105.0, ranking 144th nationally, while their strength of schedule is ranked 304th in the country according to KenPom.

Robert Morris' defense is not very flattering, with the Colonials allowing opponents to shoot 50.3% from the field, whereas Alabama allows opponents to shoot 47.9% from the field, placing the Crimson Tide in the top 50 teams in the nation in this stat, according to Bart Torvik.

Alabama's defensive adjusted efficiencies have been 93.9 over the last five games, while Robert Morris' defensive efficiency has been 105.64 over the same time period.

Alabama defends the three well, allowing opposing teams to shoot 30.8% from three, ranking 29th in the country, while Robert Morris does the opposite, allowing teams to shoot 34.2%. This is great for the Tide, who will be looking to disrupt the flow of the game with the three ball and their fast tempo. The Tide currently ranks first in the nation with an adjusted tempo of 74.6, while the Colonials have an adjusted tempo of 67.9, ranking 135th according to Bart Torvik.

The numbers all lean to Alabama winning the first round against the Colonials, but you can never be too sure about these matchups in March, with the 15th seed going 11-145 versus the second seed in the tournament's history. Only time will tell, when the two meet this Friday at 11:40 a.m. CDT.

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