ESPN Reveals Alabama’s FPI for 2025

Despite missing the College Football Playoffs last season, Alabama comes in highly ranked in ESPN's Football Power Index for the 2025 college football season.

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The Crimson Tide is ranked as the No. 3 team behind Texas and Georgia. Alabama has an FPI ranking of 24.2 as the third-highest SEC team inside the top five.

It is still pending where Alabama lands in the SEC preseason poll from SEC Media Days and the Associated Press preseason poll, which will be released in August.

ESPN's FPI gives Alabama just a 3.9 percent chance to finish undefeated, and projects the Crimson Tide at 9.6 wins for the 2025 season. Alabama's chances to finish undefeated, while low, are still the 10th-highest in the country. It's the third highest in the SEC, but Alabama sits behind Texas, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Penn State, Georgia, Clemson, Miami, UNLV, and Oregon.

ESPN also included odds for each team to win their respective conferences and make the College Football Playoffs.

In the SEC, here are each team's odds to win the conference:

Texas: 34.1%
Georgia: 26.9%
Alabama: 17.2%
Texas A&M: 4.3%
Tennessee: 4.2%
LSU: 3.5%
Ole Miss: 2.8%
Auburn: 1.8%
South Carolina: 1.8%
Oklahoma: 1.2%
Florida: 1%
Missouri: 0.6%
Arkansas: 0.5%
Kentucky: 0.1%
Vanderbilt: 0%
Mississippi State: 0%

Alabama also has the fourth-highest odds of making the College Football Playoffs.

Here are the top ten:

Texas: 83.9%
Georgia: 78.6%
Ohio State: 70.6%
Alabama: 66.2%
Penn State: 63.8%
Oregon: 57.5%
Clemson: 47.3%
Miami: 46.3%
Notre Dame: 45.6%
Tennessee: 38.5%

Top Ten probability of making the national championship:

Texas: 37.7%
Georgia: 30.0%
Ohio State: 21.3%
Alabama: 20.2%
Penn State: 14.4%
Oregon: 10.4%
Notre Dame: 7.3%
Clemson: 6.8%
Miami: 6.2%
Tennessee: 5.6%

And finally, the top ten probabilities of winning the national championship:

Texas: 24.1%
Georgia: 17.9%
Ohio State: 10.8%
Alabama: 10.8%
Penn State: 7.0%
Oregon: 4.3%
Clemson: 2.8%
Notre Dame: 2.7%
Miami: 2.7%
Texas A&M: 2.3%

Alabama's full 2025 schedule is:

Aug. 30: @ Florida State (ABC, 2:30 p.m.)
Sept. 6: Vs. ULM (SEC Network, 6:45 p.m.)
Sept. 13: Vs. Wisconsin (ABC or ESPN, 11:00 a.m)
Sept. 20: BYE
Sept. 27: @ Georgia
Oct. 4: Vs. Vanderbilt
Oct. 11: @ Missouri
Oct. 18: Vs. Tennessee
Oct. 25: @ South Carolina
Nov. 1: BYE
Nov. 8: Vs. LSU
Nov. 15: Vs. Oklahoma
Nov. 22: Vs. Eastern Illinois
Nov. 29: @ Auburn

Wyatt Fulton is the Tide 100.9 DME and Brand Manager, primarily covering Alabama Crimson Tide football and men's basketball. For more Crimson Tide coverage, follow Wyatt on X (Formerly known as Twitter) at @FultonW_.