How Can Alabama Make the SEC Championship Game?

With just three weeks remaining in the regular season, the Crimson Tide's chances of making the SEC Championship game in Atlanta, Georgia, are not as slim as many fans thought when Alabama left Knoxville, Tennessee, with its second loss this season.

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Alabama currently ranks No. 5 in the SEC standings as of November 12. With a whopping 30 SEC Championships in the trophy case in Tuscaloosa, how can Alabama make it to Atlanta to add one more before heading into the expanded 12-team College Football Playoffs?

First and Foremost - Win Out

Alabama has three remaining games on its schedule - Mercer, at Oklahoma, and Auburn. Alabama's game against Mercer doesn't contribute to the Crimson Tide's chances at an SEC Championship but for the hopes of the College Football Playoffs, Alabama needs to win out.

Alabama has to win on the road at Oklahoma and beat Auburn at home to make the SEC Championship game. A loss to either Oklahoma or Auburn would eliminate Alabama's chances of making the SEC Championship game. The highest Alabama can finish with a loss to Oklahoma is fifth in the SEC, and the highest Alabama can finish with a loss to Auburn is third.

Georgia and Tennessee are a Crucial Step

Crimson Tide fans will need to be barking on Saturday, November 16 when Georgia takes on the Tennessee Volunteers. Alabama needs Tennessee to drop one more game in SEC Play. The bad news? Tennessee only has two conference games remaining, reducing the chance that they drop one more. The good news? Tennessee goes to Athens, Georgia to take on the Bulldogs, where they are currently a 10.5-point underdog.

Missouri Appears to be the Tipping Point

The Crimson Tide defeated the Missouri Tigers 34-0 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama three weeks ago. Outside of the pure "chaos" scenario of every underdog winning outright over every team, the Missouri Tigers are a team that can control who makes the SEC Championship without having the ability to make it themselves.

Missouri has three SEC games remaining - at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, and Arkansas.

The Tigers need to win two out of the three remaining games if Alabama hopes to make the SEC Championship.

Texas A&M & Texas - Complete Tossup

This game does not affect Alabama's chances to make the SEC Championship game. if both teams continue on the current trajectory, then the winner is in the SEC Championship, while the loser is out.

So to recap,

1 - Alabama wins out.
2 - Georgia beats Tennessee.
3 - Missouri wins two out of three remaining games.

Chaos is Bad for Bama

Alabama does need teams that are expected to win, to win as the favorites. For example, if Arkansas defeats Texas this weekend, then Texas A&M defeats Texas at home, Alabama would miss the SEC Championship game, with LSU and Texas A&M making it ahead of Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage.

Alabama Fan's Rooting Guide to the SEC Championship

Teams that Alabama wants to win to better the chance of making the SEC Championship will be highlighted in bold. If neither team is in bold, then the game does not greatly affect Alabama's chances.

If no game is listed in bold, then the favorite will be assumed to win the game.

November 16

Arkansas vs. Texas

Florida vs. LSU

Georgia vs. Tennessee

South Carolina vs. Missouri

Alabama vs. Mercer

November 23

Auburn vs. Texas A&M

Florida vs. Ole Miss

LSU vs. Vanderbilt

Mississippi State vs. Missouri

Oklahoma vs. Alabama

Texas vs. Kentucky

November 30

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State

Alabama vs. Auburn

LSU vs. Oklahoma

Missouri vs. Arkansas

Texas A&M vs. Texas

Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee

If the season plays out as the above-listed games, the SEC Standings would be:

1 - Texas (7-1 in SEC Play)

2 - Alabama (6-2)

3 - LSU (6-2)

4 - Georgia (6-2)

5 - Texas A&M (6-2)

6 - Missouri (6-2)

7 - Ole Miss (6-2)

8 - Tennessee (6-2)

9 - South Carolina (4-4)

10 - Arkansas (3-5)

11 - Vanderbilt (3-5)

12 - Florida (2-6)

13 - Oklahoma (1-7)

14 - Auburn (1-7)

15 - Kentucky (1-7)

16 - Mississippi State (0-8)

*Alabama would be ranked ahead of Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss due to conference opponent win percentage (0.5156).

Alabama would play against Texas in the SEC Championship in Atlanta, Georgia on Saturday, December 7.

*All possible SEC Championship scenarios were determined by https://bball.notnothing.net/sec.php?sport=fb.

Want to determine the SEC Championship yourself? You can do so by clicking here.

Wyatt Fulton is the TIde 100.9 DME and Brand Manager, primarily covering Alabama Crimson Tide football and men's basketball. For more Crimson Tide coverage, follow Wyatt on X (Formerly known as Twitter) at @FultonW_.