How Can Alabama Make the SEC Championship?

Alabama fell at home on Saturday night to the Oklahoma Sooners, 23-21, to fall to 8-2 on the season and 6-1 in SEC play. Coming into Saturday, the plan was simple: Defeat Oklahoma and Auburn, and Alabama would punch its ticket to the SEC championship game in Atlanta, Georgia.

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Four hours later, Alabama now holds one L in the loss column in the SEC and immediately plunges itself into a tiebreaker scenario that can make heads spin. The argument could be made that Alabama now wants to miss out on the SEC Championship game to give the Crimson Tide a chance to get healthy and figure out its offensive woes, which seem to have grown bigger each weekend. Missing out on the SE Championship and finishing the season 10-2 would also give Alabama a strong chance to host a playoff game during the weekend before Christmas. Despite the loss, Alabama is not yet dead in the SEC title race, so how could Alabama make it to Atlanta?

The Obvious

Alabama must defeat Auburn in Jordan-Hare Stadium on November 29. A loss to the Tigers puts Alabama at two losses in SEC play, and three overall, effectively eliminating the Crimson Tide from both SEC title contention and playoff contention. Another 9-3 finish would also heat Kalen DeBoer's seat again as Alabama's head coach, which was red hot after the Tide's season-opening loss to Florida State.

The Tiebreakers

This is where things start to get funky. In the current SEC standings, Alabama sits fourth behind Texas A&M (7-0 in conference play), Georgia (7-1), and Ole Miss (6-1). Georgia's SEC schedule is done, so the Bulldogs finish SEC play at 7-1. The lone loss for Georgia comes to Alabama, so the Crimson Tide would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Georgia. Head-to-head record is the initial tiebreaker for the SEC, so if it comes down to Alabama and Georgia, the Crimson Tide would go to Atlanta.

However, if Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss are all 7-1 in SEC play (Ole Miss lost to Georgia in October), head-to-head wouldn't matter because Alabama and Ole Miss did not play head-to-head this season. It would then move to the secondary tiebreaker of "record vs. all common conference opponents among the tied teams." There is not one conference opponent that Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss have all played (Georgia and Alabama both played Tennessee and Auburn, Alabama and Ole Miss both played LSU, Georgia, South Carolina, and Oklahoma, Georgia and Ole Miss both played Florida, Mississippi State, and Kentucky).

The tertiary tiebreaker is "record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent in the conference standings, and proceeding through the conference standings among the tied teams." There is no common conference opponent for Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss, so this tiebreaker immediately becomes void, similar to record versus all common conference opponents.

The fourth tiebreaker is "cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among tied teams." This is where things can get confusing. If both Alabama and Ole Miss finish 7-1 in SEC play (tied with Georgia), the record of each team's opponents this season becomes important. Alabama's conference opponent record is higher based on the strength of schedule the Crimson Tide has played this season (you can thank Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma if Alabama makes the SEC championship).

The Funky Scenarios

There are some weird scenarios where Alabama could miss out on the SEC championship, even with a victory over Auburn in the Iron Bowl, but it would require major upsets over the next two weeks of SEC play.

Starting with the games next week (November 22), Arkansas would need to beat Texas on the road, and Kentucky would need to beat Vanderbilt on the road. The chaos would need to continue into the final week of the regular season, with Arkansas upsetting Missouri. If that happens, Texas A&M and Georgia would play for the SEC Championship, according to the unofficial SEC Tiebreaker Machine set up by @mred53 on X.

Two of the catalysts are Texas, which lost to Georgia 35-10 on Saturday, and Texas A&M, which defeated South Carolina 31-30. If Texas A&M wins that matchup on Black Friday, the Aggies will officially clinch their spot in the SEC championship for the first time in program history. If Texas wins (the Longhorns currently have a 53.5% chance of winning, according to ESPN's matchup predictor), it opens the door for a rematch between Alabama and Georgia in the SEC championship game.

How Can Alabama Clinch an SEC Championship Berth?

If chalk holds next week (Oklahoma, Texas, and Vanderbilt win), and Texas defeats Texas A&M on Black Friday, Alabama can clinch an SEC championship appearance with a win over Auburn. If chaos ensues, the SEC championship picture could get even muddier.

Alabama Fans' Rooting Guide the Next Two Weeks

I'll make it super simple. Alabama needs a higher conference opponent win percentage than both Ole Miss and Georgia to make the SEC Championship (and Texas A&M if the Aggies fall to Texas). Alabama fans, this is what you're hoping happens over the next two weeks:

November 22

Tennessee defeats Florida
Vanderbilt defeats Kentucky

Oklahoma and Missouri play each other, but Alabama played both teams, so Alabama's conference opponent win percentage is not affected by the outcome of this game. Texas and Arkansas play each other, but Alabama did not play either team, so Alabama's conference opponent win percentage is not affected by the outcome of this game.

November 28-29

Missouri defeats Arkansas
Alabama defeats Auburn

Other Games that will not affect Alabama's conference opponent win percentage:

Mississippi State-Ole Miss (Alabama played neither team)
Texas-Texas A&M (Alabama played neither team)
Oklahoma-LSU (Alabama played both teams)
Tennessee-Vanderbilt (Alabama played both teams)

If you want to play with different SEC scenarios yourself, you can use this unofficial SEC tiebreaker website.

Wyatt Fulton is the Tide 100.9 DME and Brand Manager, primarily covering Alabama Crimson Tide football and men's basketball. For more Crimson Tide coverage, follow Wyatt on X (Formerly known as Twitter) at @FultonW_.