SEC Softball Bracketology – Three Weeks To Go
I hope you all enjoyed your weekend. I sure did! It has been a long time since I've had a weekend off in April. Looking back, nothing too shocking happened in the SEC. The one eye-popper was Arkansas taking two of three in Missouri. The Hogs are looking good right now and have a very interesting series coming up this weekend with Kentucky.
The "bracketology" for Lexington has been updated, click the link to take a peak at the projected bracket (remember it is based on predicted final standings, not the current standings).
Feel free to share your thoughts on how you think things will shake out in the comments below.
**Predictions were made for all remaining SEC series and then applied to every team's current record to predict finish.
Click on the link above for this week's projection based on predicted outcomes
**Tiebreakers provided by the SEC were used to project the 7/8 and 9/10 seeds
Alabama
Current Record: 37-6, 10-5 SEC
Current SEC Standing: 4th (2nd in West)
Remaining SEC Schedule: Mississippi State, at LSU, Kentucky
Predicted Second Half: 8-1
Predicted SEC Finish: 18-6
NCAA Tournament Bid Outlook: Probable Top Eight National Seed (Host Regional & Supers)
Commentary: This is a statement week for Alabama. Mississippi State is coming off a sweep on the road, but the Tide should have near capacity crowds for all three games this weekend and can't afford to let a game slip away against one of the bottom teams in the league.
Arkansas
Current Record: 28-16, 6-9 SEC
Current SEC Standing: Tied for 9th (Tied for 4th in West)
Remaining SEC Schedule: Kentucky, at Tennessee, Auburn
Predicted Second Half: 5-4
Predicted SEC Finish: 11-13
NCAA Tournament Bid Outlook: In the Tournament, Likely 2 or 3 seed in Regional
Commentary: A truly impressive weekend for the Hogs. Arkansas is looking to get back to the SEC Tournament for the first time in three years and might even get a first round bye.
Auburn
Current Record: 27-18, 6-12 SEC
Current SEC Standing: 11th (6th in West)
Remaining SEC Schedule: South Carolina, Bye, at Arkansas
Predicted Second Half: 4-2
Predicted SEC Finish: 10-14
NCAA Tournament Bid Outlook: On the bubble with work to do
Commentary: The Tigers could have really used a win of Tennessee to help with their RPI , which might just keep them out of the NCAA tournament. Auburn does have upset wins over Alabama and Florida, but those are starting to look more and more like flukes. They desperately need a sweep this weekend.
Florida
Current Record: 41-5, 14-4 SEC
Current SEC Standing: 2nd (2nd in East)
Remaining SEC Schedule: Bye, Georgia, at South Carolina
Predicted Second Half: 5-1
Predicted SEC Finish: 19-5
NCAA Tournament Bid Outlook: Probable Top Eight National Seed (Host Regional & Supers)
Commentary: I was personally expecting Florida to drop a game to Kentucky, so no real harm there. The Gators have a relatively easy finish. Watch out for the midweek in Tallahassee though.
Georgia
Current Record: 31-14, 8-7 SEC
Current SEC Standing: 7th (5th in East)
Remaining SEC Schedule: Texas A&M, at Florida, LSU
Predicted Second Half: 2-7
Predicted SEC Finish: 10-14
NCAA Tournament Bid Outlook: In the Tournament, Likely 2 or 3 seed in Regional
Commentary: This young team is about to run into an SEC buzzsaw. How they handle the last three weeks of the regular season will say a lot.
Kentucky
Current Record: 31-12, 9-6 SEC
Current SEC Standing: 6th (4th in East)
Remaining SEC Schedule: at Arkansas, Missouri, at Alabama
Predicted Second Half: 2-7
Predicted SEC Finish: 11-13
NCAA Tournament Bid Outlook: In the Tournament, Likely 2 seed in Regional
Commentary: Kentucky is in very good position right now. I think they will have a rough finish, but if the Wildcats could pull off two series wins in the last three weeks, Kentucky could snatch one of the highly coveted Top 16 national seeds and host a regional at their new stadium.
LSU
Current Record: 35-9, 11-4 SEC
Current SEC Standing: 3rd (1st in West)
Remaining SEC Schedule: Missouri, Alabama, at Georgia
Predicted Second Half: 6-3
Predicted SEC Finish: 17-7
NCAA Tournament Bid Outlook: Likely Top 16 National Seed (Host Regional)
Commentary: A rematch of last year's Columbia Super Regional this upcoming weekend and it will be interesting to watch. A series victory for LSU would setup the showdown for the SEC West next week in Red Stick.
Ole Miss
Current Record: 21-26, 2-16 SEC
Current SEC Standing: 12th (7th in West)
Remaining SEC Schedule: Tennessee, Texas A&M, Bye
Predicted Second Half: 0-6
Predicted SEC Finish: 2-22
NCAA Tournament Bid Outlook: Chances were slim to none going into the weekend and slim walked out the door with State's sweep
Commentary: If Ole Miss couldn't win a game at home against Mississippi State, I would be absolutely shocked to see them beat the Lady Vols or Aggs. The bright side is the Rebels get to enjoy Spring at one of the most beautiful campuses in the country.
Mississippi State
Current Record: 27-14, 6-9 SEC
Current SEC Standing: Tied for 9th (Tied for 4th in West)
Remaining SEC Schedule: at Alabama, South Carolina, at Texas A&M
Predicted Second Half: 2-7
Predicted SEC Finish: 8-16
NCAA Tournament Bid Outlook: In the Tournament, Likely 2 or 3 seed in Regional
Commentary: Solid series sweep for Mississippi State in Oxford, but things will get much tougher in Tuscaloosa this weekend. Right now I have the Bulldogs making the NCAA Tournament, even though they probably won't make the SEC Tournament.
Missouri
Current Record: 24-6, 9-5 SEC
Current SEC Standing: 5th (3rd in East)
Remaining SEC Schedule: at LSU, at Kentucky, Tennessee
Predicted Second Half: 4-5
Predicted SEC Finish: 13-10
NCAA Tournament Bid Outlook: Possible Top 16 National Seed (Host Regional)
Commentary: Missouri did not respond well after the series loss to Alabama, turning around and dropping two of three at home to Arkansas. If the Tigers don't get it together quick, they'll be hitting the road for Regionals.
South Carolina
Current Record: 22-19, 2-13 SEC
Current SEC Standing: 12th (6th in East)
Remaining SEC Schedule: at Auburn, at Mississippi State, Florida
Predicted Second Half: 1-8
Predicted SEC Finish: 3-21
NCAA Tournament Bid Outlook: I still don't see the Gamecocks staying above .500 with the remaining schedule, but if they do they should be in
Commentary: South Carolina is not going to make the trip to Lexington, but with a good standing in the RPI the Gamecocks still can play their way into the NCAA Tournament.
Tennessee
Current Record: 38-6, 12-3 SEC
Current SEC Standing: 1st (1st in East)
Remaining SEC Schedule: at Ole Miss, Arkansas, at Missouri
Predicted Second Half: 7-2
Predicted SEC Finish: 19-5
NCAA Tournament Bid Outlook: Possible Top 8 National Seed (Host Regional & Supers)
Commentary: The Lady Vols control their own destiny. What more can you ask for? Should be an easy weekend in Oxford against a struggling Ole Miss squad.
Texas A&M
Current Record: 34-9, 6-8 SEC
Current SEC Standing: 8th (3rd in West)
Remaining SEC Schedule: at Georgia, at Ole Miss, Mississippi State
Predicted Second Half: 8-1
Predicted SEC Finish: 14-9
NCAA Tournament Bid Outlook: Likely Top 16 National Seed (Host Regional)
Commentary: The Aggies have played a rough schedule so far in conference play, but if Texas A&M has the strong finish they are more than capable of, you'll see them in College Station for Regionals.
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